Biblical Literalism and Political Conservatism

Years ago, I posted a few thoughts on the rough shape of the Bible Belt in modern America.  I'd like to update those those just a bit relative to the 2012 election.  Here is the map based on the same Pew data as before:

As before, I've removed (grayed out) the bits of CONUS in which scriptural literalism falls below the 30% threshold.  What is left is what I would call the 'Bible Belt' based on relevant data from social scientists. 

Now, take a hard look at this map. Are any states which the incumbent President can reasonably expect to win in November which fall inside of the Bible Belt as I've defined it here? The answer depends on which polls you're tracking and what day or the week it is, but it's basically down to Virginia, Ohio, and maybe Florida, and each of these is pretty much a toss-up.  Every other Bible Belt state (and a few extras) are firmly in the GOP camp, while most of the Northeast, West Coast, and Great Lakes states are as firmly in the other column.

The conclusion is ineluctable and disturbing: The political lines dividing our country are not merely a function of demography and political ideology, but also a matter of how one approaches religious faith. Generally speaking, the more likely one is to accept the Bible as literally true, word for word, the more likely one is to vote Republican.  I'd be interested in hearing any theories as to why this might be so.

Reddest state?

I have grown weary of the MSM spreading around (like so much ripe manure) the meme that Oklahoma has taken over from Utah as the reddest state in the nation. My friends, this is simply not so.

By way of illustration, picture in your mind every McCain voter in a given state contributing a drop of red paint into a giant bucket, and each Obama voter contributing an equally-sized blue drop into the same bucket. On this theory, N. Carolina and Missouri come out as nearly perfectly purple, having almost equal numbers of blue and red voters. Washington D.C. is almost wholly blue, and the reddest state is…

WYOMING

That is right, Wyoming. For every Obama voter in Wyoming, there were two McCain voters. Oklahoma ran a close second, with a ratio of 1.91 McCain voters per Obama voter. Better luck next time, Okies. Now get back on your horses and ride herd to the nearest watering hole.

Happy Constitution Day!

For those of you hoping to ruminate on the Constitutional issues of our times with an eye to electoral politics, I would suggest taking in a few hours of Con Law from Professor Obama. I especially recommend his own model answers, if you want to see how constitutional law is really done. Enjoy!

p.s. If anyone can find anything remotely indicative of this level of thoughtfulness on such weighty matters of law and policy from the McCain-Palin ticket, please let me know.

Bible Belt Redux

UIUC’s electoral projections map fairly nicely onto my Bible Belt map from awhile back.  Coincidence? 

Modeling the Electoral College

With degrees in maths and some background in mod/sim, one might suppose that I would at some point get around to mathematically modeling to the upcoming presidential election.  I’ll spare you the gory details, but the upshot of this chart is that the odds of a McCain-Palin victory are hovering below 4% as of this morning’s state-by-state polling data.  These are roughly the same odds that Obama-Biden landslide into office with over 72% of the electoral college votes.  Naturally, I am hoping for an outcome somewhere within one sigma from the median, since elections which fall well within the tails seem to smack of systemic bias.

 

Crunch the numbers, ye conservatives, and despair.

 

p.s. The math geeks at UIUC have come to rather similar conclusions: http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/

Bidding on Biden

I hope these political futures traders know something that we don't.

Mulatos, multiculturalism & morals

Two-thirds of a multi-racial nuclear family

Finished both of (soon-be-President) Obama's books over the weekend and I'm more confident than ever that he is the man for the job. I was particularly impressed with Obama’s express understanding of multiple cultures alongside an implicit rejection of multiculturalism. Barack can feign a decent inner-city brogue, as well as a passable Kenyan accent, but he makes it clear that despite (or perhaps because of) his experience with various cultures, he himself affirms distinct moral preferences (e.g. monogamous fatherhood) which may well run counter to those accepted in other cultures.

In the course of both books, you get the sense that Barack Obama has carved out for himself a individual identity in which widely and dearly held ideas of race and culture are subordinated to quintessentially American values which he is willing to defend and expound openly - even at the risk of castration from the Old Guard. It may be that only one with direct blood ties to black and white families can so audaciously hope to transcend race and culture successfully on the national stage.

That is not to say that such ideas are novel. This week, I'm delving even further into difficult questions of race and culture with Thomas Sowell's Black Rednecks and White Liberals. From what I've seen thus far, it is going to be an absolute romp compared to his (far drier) books on beginner/intermediate economic theory. Certainly it does not lack insight or originality. The idea that inner-city "ghetto" culture was transplanted from Southern "redneck" culture, which in turn was transplanted from the northern hill country of Britain certainly resonates and no doubt touches nerves on both sides.

Reading this month

I've decided to spend my copious spare time in July reading the memoirs, ideas, and hopes of our next president, or rather, listening to the author reading it to me while I try to keep my car riding along an appropriate path.

Believe you me, there is a little extra 'oomph' in hearing the Senator from Illinois read these passages aloud for himself, especially in Dreams from My Father, where the author/narrator's emotive inflection really helps you get a richer sense of the original intent behind the text.

I'll post up favorite quotes and puzzling snippets in the comments throughout the next few weeks.