Background Probability

The Agnostic Popular Front has moved to its new home at Skeptic Ink, and will henceforth be known as Background Probability. Despite the relocation and rebranding, we will continue to spew the same low-fidelity high-quality bullshit that you've come to expect.

Monday, July 9, 2012

A brief history of #FtBullies

18 Jun 2012
Ophelia Benson pushes back against characterizations of Freethought Blogs as a haven for bullies: http://freethoughtblogs.com/butterfliesandwheels/2012/06/bullies/

21 Jun 2012
Richard Sanderson coins the new hashtag:

23 Jun 2012
Jeremy Stangroom jumps in







01 Jul 2012
Ophelia and friends join the party, and the hash-crash begins
























Also on July 1st, Paula Kirby publishes Sisterhood of the Oppressed, thereby sealing her fate with respect to certain blogging collectives.

03 Jul 2012
Paula Kirby joins the fray on Twitter.

04 Jul 2012
Greta Christina and Jason Thibeault boast (without any apparent sense of self-awareness) about how they leveraged the size of FtB's loyal following to dilute out the original message of the hashtag, which was mostly people complaining about how FtB finds various ways to prevent the dissemination of dissent. At this point, the hypocrisy circuit on my personal irony meter completely blows out and causes collateral damage to both my sense of humor and my wireless router.

The ongoing hash crash becomes ever more intense, mostly consisting of lighthearted nonsense and occasionally sparkling satire. If you're going to shout down grouchy dissenters, hey, at least make it entertaining.

Finally, someone calling himself "dysomniak" apparently has in his hand a list of names of known misogynists:

















No evidence is forthcoming, but the smear does the trick. People calling themselves skeptics block the accused without asking for evidence. Further blacklisting ensues. I include this last not because dysomniak is anyone special at FtB, but because he is representative of a certain kind of angry Pharyngulite, for whom the ends completely justify the means.

After this point, there are still a few feeble attempts to discuss actual cyberbullying on (and from) both sides, but for the most part the hash degenerated into name calling and mutual recrimination. Final recap video posted here.



Sunday, July 1, 2012

Playing the privilege card


If you're bored (and not remotely inclined to suicidal ideation) it's sort of fun to keep track of how many comments are posted over at the FtB before someone derides someone else (usually a white guy) for having 'privilege' while having an opinion, particularly in threads where the original post is at least somewhat related to sexism or feminism or some other form of group-based discrimination.

So Much Wrong - Comment #10
Real Threat Assessment Experts - Comment #6
Threat Assessment - Comment #18
Schroedinger's Threat - Comment #83
Why I Have Hope - Comment #2
Sexual Harassment Definitions - Comment #5
Holy Fucking Shit - Comment #19
Eye Runny - Comment #16
I look at the slimepits - Comment #26
Making my comment rules explicit - Comment #52

This is just a small sampling, of course, and should not be considered statistically representative. Moreover, I don't mean to lump in serious conversations of the actual problem of privilege with the use of the word as a pejorative: a shorthand way to dismiss dissenting voices, lock out neophytes who are't yet hip to the jive, and prevent a two-sided exchange of ideas.

It's not just the term 'privilege' that's being used as a cudgel over there, either. Try expressing a dissenting view on any sensitive issue without being called a 'troll' or worse. Don't take my word for it, go ahead, try it yourself. Be as polite as you like while doing so, but disagree with the OP and see what happens.

And that's really what this kerfuffle has really been about - dissent. We can all agree that sexism is a real problem, but disagree about the scope of the problem and whether the solution should be handled in an authoritarian top-down manner (creating and enforcing policies) or via the usual interpersonal social mechanisms (informally enforced cultural norms against harassment, misogyny, and the like). As usual, the rift is between an authoritarian feminist approach (e.g. actively creating safe spaces unburdened by dissenters) and a more laissez-faire masculist approach (e.g. passively allowing unmoderated slimepits), and as usual the debate has degenerated into name-calling and recrimination in most corners of the web.

Personally, I lean towards the FtB / Skepchick party line on this particular issue, but that doesn't mean that I'm remotely thrilled about the name calling and derision heaped upon those who disagree. One can agree upon ends but not means, after all.


Friday, June 1, 2012

A general theory of in-group kerfuffles




Probably someone with a background in psychology has already done this, with more data, more rigor, and more eloquence, but I'm going to give it a go anyhow. Having experienced an undue amount of interpersonal drama throughout the month of May, I have often found myself wondering: Is there a general pattern to the incidents which divide the freethought community? Can we generalize from major controversies such as Elevatorgate and Gelatogate to the smaller incidents which go on at a grassroots level? Some have said that we shouldn't reopen old wounds, or fan the flames, or [insert unpleasant analogy of choice], but please understand that this is not at all my intention. To the contrary, my hope is that once we begin to recognize the general pattern at work, we will start to catch ourselves before contributing to the next blow-up, however big or small.

All that said, here is the general framework which I've come up with so far:

1) Offensive action
2) Defensive reaction
3) Commentariat takes sides
4) Repeat until well and thoroughly bloodied

Some examples of step (1) might include propositioning a woman at a conference, or giving a satirical sermon peppered with blasphemy and vulgarity, posting a potentially offensive photo or suggestion to a private message board, or refusing to take down certain offensive threads.

Corresponding examples of step (2) might include editorial blogging about the propriety of sexual propositions in a given context, attempting to unwelcome unbelievers from a gelato shop, moderating posts which are considered offensive or otherwise inappropriate in a private forum, or creating a blacklist of speakers with which one refuses to share a stage.

So far, so good. Someone has expressed themselves, and someone else has done so as well, and both parties are probably feeling a bit rejected or affronted. Step (3), however, is where we provide redundant evidence that humans are just a chromosome away from flinging shit at each other, as we line up to take sides with the party from step (1) or step (2) and gradually slide down the path from rational arguments to personal attacks. Eventually, we get to the point where third-parties are attacking each other based on guilt by association, in a sort of virtual family feud.

Note that I'm saying "we" because I am not nearly above the fray, and I've personally been guilty of every misstep described herein. Notice also that I'm greatly oversimplifying for the sake of the model. In reality, steps (1) and (2) may be interchanged depending on point of view, and they will often engender a series of spinoff discussions which recapitulate the entire process repeatedly, nesting loops of mutual recrimination between third parties and thus giving rise to step (3).

Finally, I have to note that steps (1) and (2) are to some degree inevitable. The freethought community will always have members who lean towards untrammeled free expression (however shocking it might be) and others who prefer a more humanistic approach of carefully tailoring speech to the sensibilities of the audience. Even those who acknowledge that a balance must always be struck between free expression and consideration will inevitably be tempted to take sides in particular cases.

What, then, can we do?  We must learn to recognize when we are giving offense, taking offense, reacting defensively, or otherwise engaging in a vicious cycle of emotional escalation. We must learn to recognize when we are taking sides in a controversy and assigning guilt by association to those arguing for the other side. We must learn to recognize the signs of online disinhibition and compensate accordingly. Within our local groups, we must recognize that the leadership and moderators are trying their very best to balance the interests of all sides, and give them more credit than grief for doing so, even when things don't go our way. Above all, we have to keep our minds open to new evidence and to the possibility that we are missing salient facts, miscommunicating our position, or just plain wrong.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Biblical Literalism and Political Conservatism

Years ago, I posted a few thoughts on the rough shape of the Bible Belt in modern America.  I'd like to update those those just a bit relative to the 2012 election.  Here is the map based on the same Pew data as before:


As before, I've removed (grayed out) the bits of CONUS in which scriptural literalism falls below the 30% threshold.  What is left is what I would call the 'Bible Belt' based on relevant data from social scientists. 

Now, take a hard look at this map. Are any states which the incumbent President can reasonably expect to win in November which fall inside of the Bible Belt as I've defined it here? The answer depends on which polls you're tracking and what day or the week it is, but it's basically down to Virginia, Ohio, and maybe Florida, and each of these is pretty much a toss-up.  Every other Bible Belt state (and a few extras) are firmly in the GOP camp, while most of the Northeast, West Coast, and Great Lakes states are as firmly in the other column.

The conclusion is ineluctable and disturbing: The political lines dividing our country are not merely a function of demography and political ideology, but also a matter of how one approaches religious faith. Generally speaking, the more likely one is to accept the Bible as literally true, word for word, the more likely one is to vote Republican.  I'd be interested in hearing any theories as to why this might be so.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Six Modest Proposals

The increasing polarization of American politics and culture has many people concerned for the future of our great Republic. After much careful consideration and not a little hand-wringing, I've come up with six ways to bring the right- and left-wings of the socio-political spectrum into a more perfect union.

1) Baby Oil
The right has called repeatedly for opening up more domestic sources of energy, with slogans such as "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less!" Meanwhile, the political left has supported innovation in renewable energy and (apparently unrelatedly) put its weight behind Roe v. Wade, which has allowed for an average of 1.3 million legally induced abortions per year since it was handed down. That is a massive amount of organic material which currently goes almost completely to waste. If we can only find a new method by which to fuel our vehicles and power plants using human fetuses instead of fossil fuels, surely both sides can come together and encourage abortion doctors to "Drill, Baby, Drill!" our way to national energy independence.

2) Single-payer sterilization
This one is such a win/win it is practically a no-brainer. The left has been clamoring for population control from time immemorial, from Margaret Sanger to Paul Ehrlich to the activists at www.VHEMT.org; more recently they have also been clamoring for single-payer health care here in the U.S. Meanwhile, the right has been up in arms over abortion, bastardy, and transfer payments to single mothers. In the future, we can greatly reduce all these social ills and the human population itself by the simple expedient of universal mandatory reversible vasectomies for men and removable implants for women, both funded by the national health service and reversed upon request for those who can present a legal marriage certificate. The right will take consolation in the fact that only married heterosexuals will be allowed to create babies henceforth, while the left will finally enjoy the implementation of effective population control. As an added bonus, this policy will also have the effect of slowing if not halting the prevalence of dysgenic breeding, feared by right-wing intellectuals such as Charles Murray for decades. Naturally, this reform would make my first proposal obsolete, so we'll have find some way to wean ourselves off of fetal fuels prior to implementation.

3) Occupy Ball St.
Left-wing liberals love nothing so much as a crowd of rowdy hippies protesting the powers that be, while right-wing troglodytes apparently cannot get enough of college football. What better way to combine these two activities than to recruit a crowd of angry young hipsters to support Cardinals football? They have an 0-5 record in Division I bowl games, having been outscored by a total score of 184-97, so there is little risk that they will ever become part of the top 1% of NCAA football. If you're going gather together a crowd of discontented losers, why not gather two? Perhaps by rubbing elbows with sports fans, the protest crowd will finally realize that it is utterly hopeless to try to fix America, and then they can get back to serious endeavors like finishing up their degrees in [historically oppressed group of choice] studies.

4) War on Poverty
Generally, progressives support social safety nets and transfer payments as a means for promoting the national welfare, while conservatives support the notion that warfare is the health of the state. Why not combine these two notions into a modern synthesis? Instead of leaving our war veterans to find a job and fend for themselves upon returning to the homeland, we can recruit them to fight poverty by hunting down and killing the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the global economy in the first place. Naturally, the soldiers would be ordered to redistribute all wealth liberated from the clutches of the bankers in the form of transfer payments to the desperately needy. As the result of this policy, the left will get to realize their goal of eradicating poverty, while the right may rightly revel in the fact that patriotic American soldiers get to go on killing enemies of the state.

5) Church-state integration
On its face, this might seem like a total capitulation of the secular left to the religious right, but please hear me out. Once the wall of separation is torn down, the government can start paying churches directly to fund their building campaigns and charitable programs, and then threaten to withhold funding if the churches don't live up to strict anti-discrimination laws interpreted by a panel of west-coast liberal activist judges. If you can think of a quicker way to get Southern Baptists to offer marriage counseling and adoption planning to interracial gay couples, I'd like to hear it.

6) $2.50 / gallon gas -- On the moon!
This one should be self-explanatory. The left loves funding research and scientific advances, while the right loves oil subsidies and cheap gasoline. What better way to combine the two than to develop lunar colonies wholly dependent upon fossil fuels? Granted, a few million years of terraforming seems like a huge up-front investment, but we have to learn to take the long view.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Contra Bacon

Every faith community is occasionally riven over matters of doctrine and practice, and this goes for communities of unfaith as much as anyone else. Those who see themselves as reformers may be recorded by history as splitters, heretics, or worse. Acutely aware of these issues, it is with great trepidation that I have come to the conclusion that I must speak out against bacon.

That's right, bacon. It is growing threat to the freethought community, and I'm here to warn you against it. Firstly, it is an explicitly pro-Christian food. Allow me to quote just a bit from the late great Christopher Hitchens on this point, from God is Not Great (pp. 40-41):
Porcophilia can also be used for oppressive and repressive purposes. In medieval Spain, where Jews and Muslims were compelled on pain of death and torture to convert to Christianity, the religious authorities quite rightly suspected that many of the conversions were not sincere. Indeed, the Inquisition arose partly from the holy dread that secret infidels were attending Mass—where of course, and even more disgustingly, they were pretending to eat human flesh and drink human blood, in the person of Christ himself. Among the customs that arose in consequence was the offering, at most events formal and informal, of a plate of charcuterie. Those who have been fortunate enough to visit Spain, or any good Spanish restaurant, will be familiar with the gesture of hospitality: literally dozens of pieces of differently cured, differently sliced pig. But the grim origin of this lies in a constant effort to sniff out heresy, and to be unsmilingly watchful for giveaway expressions of distaste. In the hands of eager Christian fanatics, even the toothsome Jamon Iberico could be pressed into service as a form of torture.

Five years ago, Hitchens warned us of the potentially evil uses of bacon, but many devout atheists have refused to heed his warnings. Instead, they continue to interject bacon into conversation and inject it into recipes, with wanton disregard of the role it has historically played in enforcing Christian dominionism throughout the Iberian peninsula.

Why, you ask, are Christians so keen on bacon? Is it merely a means of distinguishing themselves from Jews and Muslims, or does this perverse porcophilia go deeper? It goes deeper, my friends, it goes so much deeper, to the very roots of the Christian Church.

The two great pillars of the early church were, of course, the apostles Paul and Peter. Paul's mission was to bring the Christian gospel to the Gentiles throughout the Roman Empire, peoples already quite familiar with and indulgent in all manner of pork products. His major hangup was with the practice of circumcising new Christian converts as if they were Jews, a ritual requirement which was not exactly helping along his missionary efforts, and which he helped to abolish by writing various screeds against it. Needless to say, new converts flowed in more rapidly once this issue was definitively settled in Paul's favor.

Peter's mission, meanwhile, was primarily to bring the Jews into the Christian fold, men who were circumcised from birth but may have been well educated and culturally Hellenized. For these men, circumcision was not a live issue, but pork surely was. In major centers of Roman influence such as Sepphoris and Caesarea, first century Jews would have seen their Gentile neighbors herding swine, pulling pork, and frying bacon. They would also be aware from their rabbinical training that God changes the dietary rules every so often, such as just after the Noahic flood and again with the proclamation of the Levitical holiness code. They would also know that any true Messiah would bring with him a new order of the ages, the inbreaking of the Kingdom of God, and with that the possibility of a new set of social relations and dietary rules. Jesus alluded to such an upheaval when he repeatedly proclaimed that "the last will be first, and the first will be last," but did that saying apply only to persons, or also to that which they consume? Would the most ritually unclean of animals be cleared for human consumption in the new dispensation?

With the smell of frying bacon still wafting about, Peter fretted over this question day and night, until finally the answer came to him in a dream. It looked something like this. Take a moment to browse through those illustrations, please. I'll wait.

Ok, did you notice anything particularly odd about those heavenly picnic blankets? Right. Most of those animals either aren't that appealing (reptiles), or they are incredibly hard to get (e.g. lions and bears), or they are already kosher. The only domesticated animal on the menu that clearly appeals with the Hellenized Jews of the time period was, you guessed it, the pigs. Peter's amazing heavenly flying-carpet picnic-blanket at once solves the problem of how to give the men who are already circumcised an incentive to join the nascent Jesus movement - BACON!

In conclusion, then, we've seen that the two great pillars of the early Christian church solved similar recruitment problems in a similar way, by assimilating themselves to the culture of the gentile polytheists. In doing so, however, they sealed the fate of the Christian church forever. No longer could it maintain its identity as an insular Jewish sect, but instead it has to look outward for new converts, leading eventually to global colonization and the wholesale destruction of native peoples by viruses originally endemic to Indo-European swine herds.

Do freethinkers really want to associate ourselves with an animal that has wrought so much harm in the name of Christ? Or shall we instead stand boldly on the side of all that is right and good and pure, namely, pasta? The FSM will no longer tolerate second-billing to this upstart bacon meme. There can be only ONE truly HOLY food. Pastafarians of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your hypercholesterolemia.